Dubai’s economy produced about AED473 billion in goods and services in the first half of 2026 after adjusting for inflation, according to the Dubai Data and Statistics Establishment at Digital Dubai. The figure sits 2.3% below the same period last year. Before the inflation adjustment, output grew slightly to about AED505 billion. Prices rose across the economy, with inflation reaching 5.5% in August, while activity in some large sectors slowed.
Home values steadied through the third quarter. ValuStrat’s third quarter report shows prices broadly unchanged from the previous quarter, with most villa and apartment communities recording no movement at all. Demand kept growing underneath. Dubai added about 230,000 residents since January, more than 800 people a day, bringing the population to 4.81 million. At the RISE Summit at Dubai World Trade Centre on 15 October, the UAE Ministry of Economy and Tourism named recovery, execution and reform as its priorities and said the UAE will enter 2027 with a more productive economy.
Property earns more and trades less
Real estate accounts for about 12% of Dubai’s economy, the third largest sector after trade and finance. The sector earned AED65.1 billion in the first half, up from AED61.8 billion a year earlier, while fewer homes changed hands.
The third quarter brought a turn in ready homes. Buyers completed 9,491 resale purchases worth about AED25 billion, more than 3,100 homes a month and the first quarterly rise since late last year. One in three of these homes sold for under AED1 million. Off-plan sales slowed for a fourth straight quarter as developers shifted attention from launches to finishing projects already under way. About 33,000 new homes reached completion by the end of September, less than a third of the year’s target, as construction costs climbed.
Financing changed shape too. Mortgages funded almost half of all ready property deals in the quarter, and refinancing reached a record, making up more than half of residential mortgages. Owners are locking in terms after the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates in September for the first time since 2023. Rents eased across most home sizes, and landlords now ask about AED81,000 a year for a typical one bedroom apartment.
Where the growth is
Finance and insurance grew fastest among the large sectors, up 8.8% after inflation to about AED65.9 billion. Healthcare, technology and construction also grew. Dubai approved a longevity strategy aiming for more than AED35 billion in economic contribution over the next decade. Federal services are adopting AI agents, and the government now judges technology spending by how well AI works inside businesses and factories, not by the size of the budget.
Business property reflects this demand. Office values have tripled in five years, and every major office district gained value over the past year. Companies keep competing for a limited supply of new space.
Building resilience
Trade and transport slowed. Retail and wholesale trade earned more in cash terms but shrank after inflation, and transport and storage fell 7.4%. Hotels filled about 60% of their rooms in the first eight months, though August brought the most overseas visitors since February.
The federal response focuses on reliability. Supply chains now favour backup routes and local production over the cheapest option, and a federal food cluster of 80 factories and companies met for two hours every day during the disruption to keep shelves stocked. Warehouses show the result. Logistics property values rose about a fifth over the year as companies hold more stock closer to home.
How Dubai compares
Emaar argued Dubai homes cost less per square metre than homes in Chicago, Singapore, London and Mumbai, though it offered no figures, and outlined plans to invest about US$17 billion in Syria. S&P Global affirmed the UAE’s AA credit rating and expects growth to average 6.2% a year from 2027 to 2029.
Inside Dubai, a typical villa carries a value of about AED12.9 million and a typical apartment about AED1.78 million. Prime villas held their value over the year, and 48 homes sold for more than AED30 million during the quarter.
What this means for you
Dubai’s growth now comes from finance, technology, healthcare and construction, while its population rises faster than new homes arrive. If you own a home, values have held steady for three months. If you are buying, resale activity is picking up, so the room to negotiate on price may narrow in the months ahead. If you rent, landlords are more open to talks this year. If you are measuring returns, compare them against inflation, since rising prices account for part of every gain this year.
